As of July 29, 2022, the Agricultural Price Index is 19% higher compared to January 2021. Maize and wheat prices are 16% and 22% higher, respectively, compared to January 2021, while rice prices are about 14% lower. (See “pink sheet” data for agricultural commodity and food commodity prices indices, updated monthly.)
Domestic food price inflation remains high around the world. Information from between March and June 2022 shows high inflation in almost all low- and middle-income countries; 93.8% of low-income countries, 89.1% of lower-middle-income countries, and 89% of upper-middle-income countries have seen inflation levels above 5%, with many experiencing double-digit inflation. The share of high-income countries with high inflation has also increased sharply, with about 78.6% experiencing high food price inflation.
According to the World Bank’s April 2022 Commodity Markets Outlook, the war in Ukraine has altered global patterns of trade, production, and consumption of commodities in ways that will keep prices at historically high levels through the end of 2024 exacerbating food insecurity and inflation.
Food prices were already high before, and the war is driving food prices even higher. Commodities that have been most affected are wheat, maize, edible oils, and fertilizers. Global commodity markets face upside risks through the following channels: reduction in grain supplies, higher energy prices, higher fertilizer prices, and trade disruption due to shutting down of major ports.
Over the coming months, a major challenge will be access to fertilizers which may impact food production across many crops in different regions. Russia and Belarus are major fertilizer exporters, accounting for 38% of potassic fertilizers, 17% of compound fertilizers, and 15% of nitrogenous fertilizers.
On April 13, 2022, the heads of the World Bank Group, International Monetary Fund, United Nations World Food Programme, and World Trade Organization released a joint statement calling on the international community for urgent action to address food insecurity, to keep trade open and support vulnerable countries, including by providing financing to meet the most urgent needs.
Following the start of the war in Ukraine, trade-related policies imposed by countries have surged. The global food crisis has been partially made worse by the growing number of food trade restrictions put in place by countries with a goal of increasing domestic supply and reducing prices. As of July 15, 18 countries have implemented 27 food export bans, and seven have implemented 11 export-limiting measures.
By June 2022 the number of acute food insecure people – whose access to food in the short term has been restricted to the point that their lives and livelihoods are at risk – increased to 345 million in 82 countries according to WFP. In addition, WFP and FAO warned that acute food insecurity could worsen in 20 countries or areas during June to September 2022.
Rapid phone surveys done by the World Bank in 83 countries show a significant number of people running out of food or reducing their consumption in the first two years of the COVID-19 pandemic. Reduced calorie intake and compromised nutrition threaten gains in poverty reduction and health and could have lasting impacts on the cognitive development of young children.
Última actualización: 29 julio 2022